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The saving rate
Why a country can save more and more… without its saving rising.
saving rate = (disposable income − consumption) / disposable incomeProblem / motivation
In 2025, French households had never saved so much since the 1970s: 18.3% of their disposable income. That same year, their purchasing power rose by only 0.1%, after 2.1% in 2024. How can a country save more at the very moment it is growing richer the least?
That apparent paradox is the best way into a notion almost everyone handles wrongly. Three false ideas circulate, and this course dismantles them one after the other, by computing. The first: “saving means putting money aside” — no, saving is a RESIDUAL, everything that is not consumed, and more than half of what the French save goes through no account at all. The second: “if the country saves 18%, the average household saves 18%” — false, and the gap is considerable. The third, the costliest: “if everyone saves more, the country's saving rises” — we shall prove that it does not.
Each of those three ideas falls for the same underlying reason: the saving rate is not an individual behaviour you could add up, it is a RATIO BETWEEN TWO AGGREGATES, and aggregates do not behave like the individuals who make them up. Start with the poll: it is about a country of two inhabitants, and hardly anyone gets it right first time.
Assumptions
In your view, which assumptions are needed for this model to hold? Jot down your ideas — no lead is wrong, this is your worksheet.
Your worksheet is still empty. Go for it: propose at least one idea.
0 idea(s) proposedFormalization
Let us start with the simplest case, following a household with €2,500 a month. DISPOSABLE INCOME is everything it takes in — wages, pensions, benefits, rents received — minus taxes and social contributions. It has only two possible uses: consume, or not. If it consumes €2,050, its SAVING is what is left, S = R − C = €450. Divide that residual by income and you get the saving RATE: 450/2,500 = 18%. Note carefully what the object is: it is not a sum somebody wanted to set aside, it is a subtraction recorded after the fact. Hence a property we shall use everywhere: since S and C share out the whole of R, the saving rate and the consumed share add up to 100% — here 18% and 82%.
Let us go from the household to the country, and this is where almost everybody trips. Take the two households of the poll again. The first earns €1,500 and saves 0%: its saving is nil. The second earns €4,500 and saves 30%: €1,350. Average the two RATES and you get (0 + 30)/2 = 15%. But that is not how a country is measured: you add up the saving (€1,350), you add up the income (€6,000), and you divide — 22.5%. Why the gap? Because in a ratio of aggregates, each household weighs **in proportion to its income**, not one vote each. The rich one counts three times more here. Formally, the national rate is an average of individual rates WEIGHTED by incomes. So what the algebra proves is precise: as soon as incomes AND rates differ, the aggregate departs from the simple average of rates — and it departs UPWARDS when it is high incomes that save the most. Whether that is actually the case, no algebra can say: it has to be measured. And the measurement is striking. According to the 2022 national accounts, the net saving rate of the poorest 20% of households is **−29%** — they dissave — that of households near the median **+6%**, and that of the richest 20% **+27%**. So the middle household saves around 6%, while the country posts nearly 18%. Keep the right words: “the French save 18%” describes a NATION, never a French person.
Back to our household and its €450. Where do they go? Suppose it repays €250 of principal on its mortgage and invests €200. Both are USES of saving, because in both cases its net wealth rises: repaying principal wipes out a debt. Buying housing follows the same logic — national accountants say that saving FINANCES that purchase rather than IS it, but the practical consequence is identical: those euros end up in no account. So two rates are measured, never to be confused: the TOTAL rate (450/2,500 = 18%) and the FINANCIAL saving rate, which counts only investments (200/2,500 = 8%). France showed a contrast of the same order at the end of 2025: 17.9% and 8.6% (our household is not France; its figures were merely chosen to resemble it). In other words, more than half of what the French save goes into bricks and mortar. (The interest on the loan is neither saving nor consumption: it is deducted upstream from disposable income.)
Here is the most counter-intuitive result of the subject, and it takes three lines to prove. Let us take a whole country, over one year, with investment I set by firms. Three simplifications, to be stated at once since they are what makes the result so clean: no state (no public spending, no taxes), no trade with abroad, and idle production capacity — in other words an economy running below par, where demand is what limits activity. Then everything produced is either consumed or invested: Y = C + I. And households consume a share (1 − s) of their income: C = (1 − s)·Y, where s is the saving rate written as a decimal — 0.20 for 20%. Mind the notation, the two letters live side by side: capital S is saving in euros, lower-case s is the rate. Now substitute C into the first equality: Y = (1 − s)·Y + I. Bring the Y terms to the same side: Y − (1 − s)·Y = I. But Y − (1 − s)·Y = Y·[1 − (1 − s)] = Y·s. What is left is s·Y = I, that is, **Y = I / s**. That writing should ring a bell: 1/s is exactly the Keynesian multiplier, since s = 1 − c where c is the consumed share (course “The fiscal multiplier”). The country's income is investment multiplied by 1/s — and it is precisely because that multiplier shrinks when s rises that what follows surprises. Now compute saving: S = s·Y = s × I/s = **I**. Total saving equals investment, WHATEVER the saving rate. Put figures on it to believe it: with I = 200 and s = 20%, income settles at 1,000 and saving at 200. If all households decide to save 25%, income falls to 800 — and saving is still 200. They have saved a bigger share of a smaller cake, for exactly the same amount. This is Keynes's PARADOX OF THRIFT: wanting to save more, all together, does not make more saving appear — it makes income disappear. Click each term:
Solving / calculation
Three passes: the household and its two rates, then the two proofs in figures — the one that separates the country from the typical household, and the one about the paradox. The household amounts are an example chosen so the arithmetic comes out round; the national rates are measured.
- The household: what is left
S = 2,500 − 2,050S = €450 — a residual, not a decision - Its saving rate
450 / 2,50018%, and therefore 82% consumed - Where do those €450 go?
€250 of principal repaid + €200 investedfinancial rate = 200/2,500 = 8% - Real France, end of 2025
total rate 17.9% · financial rate 8.6%≈ 9 points apart: bricks and mortar - ⭐ Proof 1 — a country of two households
saving: 0 + 1,350 · income: 1,500 + 4,5001,350/6,000 = 22.5%, against 15% as an average of rates - What that gap means, measured on France (2022)
net rate: poorest 20% −29% · median +6% · richest 20% +27%the middle household saves ≈ 6%, the country ≈ 18% - ⭐ Proof 2 — everybody saves more (I = 200, fixed)
Y = I/s: at s = 20%, Y = 1,000 and S = 200starting point - They decide to save 25%
Y = 200/0.25 = 800 · S = 0.25 × 800S = 200 — unchanged, but Y has lost 20%
The three received ideas announced at the start have fallen. (1) Saving is not putting money aside: it is not consuming, and more than half of French saving finances housing rather than financial investments. (2) The country's rate is not that of the middle household: it weights each one by its income, and the measurement confirms the gap — 6% at the median against nearly 18% for the nation, with the poorest dissaving. (3) Everybody saving more together does not raise saving: at a given level of investment, it cuts income by exactly what it takes for saving to stay equal to investment. That leaves the opening question — why do the French save so much in 2025 while their purchasing power stagnates? Because uncertainty raises PRECAUTIONARY saving: when the future is unreadable, people keep a margin, and that individual prudence is perfectly rational even if, taken collectively, it weighs on activity (interpretation, point 3).
national rate = (S₁ + S₂) / (R₁ + R₂), to be compared with (s₁ + s₂)/2This simulator is a country of two households. Set each one's income and saving rate, and compare the two ways of summarising that country: the average of their rates, and the rate a statistical institute would publish. Try to make them coincide — you will see under what very particular condition that is possible.
Economic interpretation
Three readings: what the paradox really implies, who saves in a country, and why the French save so much today.
The proof in step 4 is brutal, but it has conditions you need to know so as not to over-read it. It assumes investment I is FIXED and that production capacity is idle — in other words an economy running below par, where demand is what limits activity. In that case, yes: saving more together destroys income without creating saving. But if the economy is running flat out, saving on the contrary frees resources for investment, and it finances long-run growth (course “The Solow model: saving and the steady state”). So the paradox is a SHORT-RUN result, valid in a recession — which is precisely where it matters, since that is when everybody wants to protect themselves. And if investment REACTS to the fall in demand, final saving can even recede: the result then becomes worse than “unchanged”.
The proof in step 2 has a consequence that needs naming: the saving rate rises steeply with income, because committed spending — housing, food, energy — absorbs almost everything among poorer households. So a national rate of 18% describes nobody in particular: it results from a minority saving a great deal and a majority saving little or nothing. That has an immediate practical bearing: the same sum handed out does not have the same effect depending on who receives it. Given to a poorer household, it is almost entirely consumed and supports activity; given to a well-off household, it is largely saved (course “The fiscal multiplier”).
Back to the opening puzzle. Three motives push people to save, and they have neither the same causes nor the same horizon. PRECAUTION: protecting yourself against the unexpected — that is what explains the recent rise, against a background of past inflation and uncertain prospects, at a time when purchasing power was growing by only 0.1%. Then the LIFE CYCLE, described by Modigliani: you borrow when young, save in mid working life, and run down your wealth in retirement — so an ageing country does not mechanically save more, since retired people dissave. Finally the PROJECT: a deposit on a home, studies, a bequest. Three motives, three opposite reactions to the same piece of news — which is why no policy steers the saving rate easily.
Limits / critiques
Exercises
A household has €3,000 of disposable income and consumes €2,400. What is its saving rate (in %)?
Two households: one earns €2,000 and saves 5%, the other earns €6,000 and saves 25%. What is this country's saving rate (in %, one decimal)?
Model of step 4: investment is I = 300 and households save s = 15% of their income. What is equilibrium income (in €)?
True or false: a household that invests not a single cent can nonetheless have a clearly positive saving rate.
A household consumes €1,800 and its saving rate is 10%. What is its disposable income (in €)?
In which case is the national saving rate EXACTLY equal to the average of individual rates?
Same situation (I = 300, fixed). Households decide to save 20% instead of 15%. What becomes of total saving (in €)?
True or false: when INSEE announces a saving rate of 18%, it means the typical French household sets aside 18% of its income.